According to this official US Navy document the US Navy is indeed conducting live fire testing of missiles off the coast of California. This is a repeat of the situation with TWA 800 in which the US Navy at first denied knowing what missile it was that witnesses reported seeing only to have to admit to the ongoing tests of Aegis-CEC when the NOTAM surfaced days later.

Now, with this confirmation, I want to address this rumor being seeded all over the blogs about a Chinese nuclear submarine. This story tracks back to only one dubious source and the story is that a Chinese Jin class nuclear ballistic missile submarine launched the "Mystery Missile" as a show of force to the United States.

This rumor needs to be stopped right now.

First off, while the Jin is much quieter than its predecessor the Xia (the running joke here in Hawaii is that you can drop a hydrophone off Kauai and hear the Xia subs idling at their base in Jianggezhuang), the Jin is far from the silent machines that the Ohio class subs are. And like all nuclear boats, the Jin leaves a thermal trace on the surface of the water in its wake that is detectable by satellite, as is the surface disturbance created by its submerged passing. Indeed, the ability to detect and track submerged submarines b y their surface wakes using synthetic aperture radar of the ocean surface was discovered back with SeaSat, which is one reason why the SOSUS networks have been turned over to the cetologists to track whale migrations.

Second, the Jin would not need to approach the United States to make their point. The Julang 2 missile launched from the Jin has an 8000 KM range.

Third, and most importantly, why would China do such a stupid thing? They have the upper hand at the G20. They do not need to show us a missile; they can destroy the United States with the IOUs. Provoking a war with China plays to the US' advantage as it gives the US Government an excuse not to honor their debts.

Fourth, we know from the NOTAM that the US Navy was in the area, which makes the possibility of an undetected approach even more unbelievable. Plus there is the inevitable fact that had the source of the Missile been anyone other than the US Navy, the Navy would have given chase to find the launch platform. It's the old "dog did not bark" logic. The Navy did not act like the source of the missile was unknown to them.

Personally I think this "Chinese sub" story is being planted to give the US Government a scapegoat when they come back from the G20 with their tails between their legs.